Who will (Probably) win the Academy Awards

Disclaimer: I wrote this before the ceremony. I thought the awards ceremony was on at a later time. This is just to give you context on what I have written. Sorry you cannot bet anymore as they are probably void by multiple betting angencies. 

Written by Nelson Cumming

After nearly months of campaigning to the voters and the many awards ceremonies, we finally come the most viewed awards show of the year: The 89th Academy Award Ceremony.

If you have an office pool in the workplace and want bragging rights (and some easy cash) then I am here to help guide you in the right direction by separating the nominees and the winners of the golden statue.

I will be highlighting the odds for each contender and also my view on who I think SHOULD win (This does not mean I think they WILL win) With that sorted, let’s get into big five awards that are given out.

Best Picture: La La Land $1.17

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The Lead Up: La La Land has a commanding lead for Best Picture. In the run-up, La La Land has also won Best Picture at the Goldern Globes, The AACTAS, and the Critics Choice Awards.

According to Sportsbet, this movie is pretty likely to win considering that you would only make an extra 17 cents per dollar you bet. You would have to put in 6 dollars to win an extra dollar.

The Other Runners: Second place is Moonlight with 1/5 odds (only 20% chance to win) followed by Manchester by the Sea and Hidden Figures at 1/26 chance of winning. I would not bother with Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge or Hell of High Water as they are 1/101. Maybe put a buck on each of them for a chance to win 101 dollars

Who I want to win: I also want La La Land to win Best Picture. That movie was magic to me and was my favorite out of all the films that were nominated. Hacksaw Ridge is a close second to me followed by Moonlight which was my third favorite.

Best Actor: Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea $1.67

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The Lead Up: Casey Affleck has just pipped ahead of the other actors but it is not a sealed deal. Denzel Washington is going at $2.10 for Best Actor, so it will be a race for the finish line. Affleck has won the hearts of various critics with his performance in Manchester by The Sea winning multiple critic circle awards across America. But Affleck needs to win the hearts of his fellow peers in the film industry to win the Academy Award.

The Other Runners: Gosling for La La Land is at $12.00 and Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic is the long shot at $81.00

Who I want to win: I sort-of wanted the award to go to Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge, but my gut tells me he has got a breakthrough performance in himself and Hacksaw Ridge was not it. I felt like something was missing in his performance and I cannot put my finger on it. I have not seen Fences and so I would have to give the award to Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.

Best Actress: Emma Stone for La La Land $1.17

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The Lead Up: Emma Stone is the outright favorite for this Best Actress category. Even though she was only nominated for best actress at nearly all the critic circle awards, she has won the BAFTA and the Goldern Globes for her performance which is more in line with Academy Awards selectors. The actress that has been winning the various critic awards is Natalie Portman for Jackie. She is the second most-likely winner at $6.00.

The Other Runners: Isabelle Huppert for Elle stands at $9.00, Ruth Negga for Loving is at $34.00 and Meryl Streep for Florance Foster Jenkins is at $101.00

Who I want to win: I don’t know. I have only seen Emma Stone’s performance, so I cannot judge this category.

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight $1.12

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The Lead Up: Mahershala Ali is actually a supporting actor for Hidden Figures as well, but I agree that Moonlight is his best performance of the two. Just watching him in the trailer is heartwarming let alone the watching him in the movie.

The Other Runners: Dev Patel in Lion is second at $6.00 (even though I think he was the leading actor) and Jeff Bridges and Michael Shannon are at $13.00 (Even though I believe Bridges is a lead actor too)

Who I Want to Win: I have to give it to Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals. I was just mesmerized by his performance and thought he was the best in the sea of great actors in Nocturnal Animals. Ali comes a close second.

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis $1.02

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The Lead Up: To make one dollar on this girl, I have to bet 50 bucks. That is how certain the bookies are of Viola Davis winning. I have not seen Fences but I watched the trailer and understood why she was nominated. Davis has won more than 30 major awards for her role in Fences.

The other Runners: Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea is in at $17.00. Naomi Harris for Moonlight is at $26.00. Nicole Kidman for Lion is at $34.00 and Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures is at $51.00.

Who I want to win: I would prefer Harris’ performance as a drug-addled mother in Moonlight. Her performance is the only one I have seen from the nominees that add to the performance throughout. Her performance helps dictate the emotional impact that the lead actors play throughout Moonlight. Granted, I have not seen Viola Davis’ performance but I have seen all the other nominees performances.

I hope this was more insightful not only to get rich off betting, but also more detailed in some of my opinions of these acclaimed movies. Armed with this information, you should win from your office pool đŸ™‚

Tips on Winning an Academy Award

Written by Nelson Cumming

Image result for The Academy award

People have done various videos and blogs before on how to maximize your chances on winning your very own Academy award. However, most of the videos and blogs that I have seen have these tips that are exclusive to acting.

For my list, I will like to create tips on how to win an Academy from a variety of eligible categories. I will give tips on not only the actors but for writers, editors, cinematographers and other professions in the film industry if acting is not for you.

1. Bear little resemblance to what you look like

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It’s easier for people to look at and say “Wow that is a spectacular performance, they changed their appearance” 

For all three Academy Awards that Daniel Day-Lewis has won, not once did he look like himself. For My Left Foot, he played an unkempt, unshaven man with cerebral palsy. In There Will Be Blood, he played a nineteenth-century mining prospector who fancied a mustache and his face covered in dirt, sweat, and grime. In Lincoln, he played Abraham Lincoln.

Lots of actors and actress undergo physical transformations to fit in with the consistent or setting within a movie. However, the largest physical transformations occur when an actor does a biopic. This ties into the second tip.

2. Be in a True Story

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Here are a couple of biopic winners including the biopic that I think has the best chance of winning Hacksaw Ridge

To any person that is watching a movie, they will notice an actor’s talent in a biopic for two reasons. The first one is that they know the character beforehand and so they have a frame of reference on how the actor should perform. The second reason is that you would have known all the mannerisms and attitudes the character would have had because you also have a frame of reference on the person.

Biopics are also good for directors and studios that are looking for the best picture win. Four of the last six films that have won the best picture category were from biopics.

3. Make sure the Director wins his Academy Award

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If you want to win Best Picture and join the ensemble of cast and crew on that stage together you must make sure the director wins their award. The reason being is that in the last ten years, seven of the directors who won their award for Best Director won Best Picture.

This fact is not surprising considering that the director is the general, guiding the ship to its destination of success. Have a director that has ambition and acts in good faith to everyone involved. The Best Director category is almost a foreshadowing of the awards presentation for the remainder of that night.

4. Make sure that the Movie is Long

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“I think I found a long, long movie”

 

The shortest film nominated for this year’s Best Picture is Moonlight with 111 minutes and the longest film is Hacksaw Ridge at 139 minutes in length. If you are making a 90-minute film you are almost doomed to fail.

The longest film in any set of nominees has won 40% of the time according to Brendan Bettinger from Collider.com. However, the movie length that the winners of the Best Picture category tend to be in the 100-140 minute range, winning nearly 75% of the time.

If you are planning to win best short film this strategy is suicidal and I recommend you don’t try it unless you edit like the editors of Suicide Squad. This fits well into my next point.

5. Edit Smoothly

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I know for a fact that critics love breezy movies. You have to give people the sensation that 120 minutes feels like 90 minutes and not make 150 minutes feel like four hours like Batman vs. Superman.

Personally, I love smooth editing. Love it. It is one of my pet peeves. How you use the length of your film is just as important as how long the movie is. That is why I think there is next to no chance that Lion will win Best Picture because it dragged sporadically throughout.

Can you imagine Suicide Squad being nominated for best editing? In the words of The Joker “Ha Ha Ha”

The ultimate goal for editing is to make the film like one long sequence despite many scenes and location changes. One of the ways you can do that is…

6. Shoot with a consistent tone

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On google images, I typed “Tonal mess” This was one of the first images came. Just research on what not to do by watching Suicide Squad. Unless it’s for make-up đŸ™‚

Shooting with a consistant tone is mainly the cinematographer’s job. From camera movements and angles to lighting, it has to be consistent. It is the equivalent of one coherent thought. It’s easier to sit through as viewers know what realm the movie occupies itself with.

The best films in the world have done this. This year, I believe La La Land had the best use of cinematography. The majority of the movie aimed for being plesent and vibrant. They filmed during twilight (Or magic hour) and the camera was always moving smoothly but briskley, the lighting alwayed glowed and the camera was getting the maximum out of everything that was happening in that movie.

7. Have a Flashy or Eccentric Costumes

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Not that not wearing capes is a rule, but there hasn’t been a winner that had capes as their main costume. Doctor Strange undoubtably gave it a good go. 

For costume design, the common trend that I see for all the winners is you either design costumes that are flashy or eccentric. That cover the extremes on both sides of the spectrum.

When I mean flashy, I mean formal but dazzling. This is the route that finds the most success. Films like Titanic, The Great Gatsby, The Artist and The Grand Budapest Hotel have all won for best costuming and they all have the formal but dazzling feel towards all the costuming in their films.

What I mean by eccentric is to go batshit crazy with costume design. In other words, be the alternate chick on the block. I am referring to winners such as Jenny Beavan for Mad Max Fury Road and Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland. Their costumes were out of left field to say the least.

8. Keep Your Finger on the Pulse

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If you cover hot butten issues you will have a better chace of winning. Just look at the documentry nominations this year ever since The Academy had been accused of whitewashing

The Best Documentary category is a hard one to give advice to given that is has been marred by controversy over the years. For the documentaries of recent years, they generally deal with hot-button topics that will endure for years to come.

This year it definitely shows. With people complaining about the lack of racial diversity in film, boy those people who complained got their wish, 3 of the five nominated films this year were about racial tensions. Another film called Fire at Sea deals with the tragedy of the European migrant crisis.

As long as it is trending on Facebook or Twitter you have a chance. It gives the Academy the image that they are progressives. I beg to differ, but that is another topic for another time.

9a. Premiere or Show your Film at a Film Festival

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The Venice Film Festival (pictured) and the Toronto International Film Festival generally kick-start the Oscar campaign

The films that are going for Oscar nominations are ones that are premiering at a film festival. That is because the filmmakers are quietly confident that their films will be reviewed positively by cinephiles (movie-lovers) that frequently attend these events.

Some of those people are also members of the academy who expect to be enthralled by the art of cinema. Hell, some of them go their to campaign to promote the films they have done. Those are the reasons why those who campaign for the Oscars go to the festivals. That is because that is where all the voters are.

Out of the nine movies nominated this year, seven of them premiered at a film festival. The other two tried the alternate route which is…

10. Open the Film in December

The one street that December films don’t want you to enter.

If a studio doesn’t think it can compete to the same level as ones that premise or show at a festival, they will release the film in December to theaters. This is so the film will be fresher in the voter’s minds. Fresher than the nomated films that premired at film festival (theoretically speaking)

It is next to impossible for a film released January or February to win. This is because people are unlikely to remember movies from eleven months ago. That’s why Deadpool never got a nomination. I knew Marvel didn’t want Deadpool to be nominated because of its February release date.

Now go on and grab that Oscar.

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Now all you have to do is become a member of the film industry, get hired to do a job in a movie, work extra long hours to beat the intese competition, pray that your fellow comrades love it and campaign for several months, follow all these steps and boom, you have gotten a goldern stature that represents a pay rise for future projects.

I chose Jamie Foxx for this picture because I don’t want to be accused of whitewashing by hypersensitives. Why has none ever accuse the Academy’s of goldwashing their statue? It’s been covered in gold for over 70 years. I think it’s unfair for the red minority statues and I feel they are underepresented by The Academy #OscarsSoGold